Isaac Laquedem

How a third-party candidate with a sense of humor might have won the First District

One of my pastimes, which I occasionally put to practical use, is to design political campaigns, not the lawn signs and the bumper stickers, but the overarching theme for the candidate to push: how the candidate can explain his or her cause in just a few words.  The Knower of All Things likes to repeat a saying he got from a political eminence grise of the past: "If you can't explain it in two sentences, they won't vote for it."

Although I support Suzanne Bonamici in her race against Rob Cornilles, I've amused myself by working out how a third-party candidate with little funding and no name familiarity might get his or her message across to the voters.  What do you think of this?

"The two establishment candidates and their parties are spending millions of dollars telling you why you shouldn't vote for one of them. . . . and they're right!"

It's interesting what a four-function calculator can tell you about the Convention Center Hotel proposal

Professor Bogdanski's recent post on the renascence of the proposed headquarters hotel for the Oregon Convention Center caught my eye last week, not so much for his views on the hotel (long negative) but for the financial data in the report to which he linked.

Metro operates three visitor venues: the Oregon Zoo, the Oregon Convention Center, and the Expo Center.  Metro also operates a collection of performing arts spaces under the umbrella name of Portland Center for Performing Arts (PCPA): the Schnitzer, Winningstad, Newmark, and Hatfield theatres, and the Keller Auditorium.  Each year Metro commissions a study of the economic impact that the three venues and PCPA bring to the area.  It's the numbers in the study that fascinated me.

In fiscal year 2010, the Convention Center lost $10 million, the Zoo lost $5.4 million, and PCPA lost $3.5 million.  The Expo Center made $244,000.  The outside economists figured that the Convention Center supported 4,260 jobs, the Zoo supported 760 jobs, PCPA supported 640 jobs, and the Expo Center supported 380 jobs.  These include not only the people who work at the facilities (direct jobs), but also people who work at hotels, motels, restaurants, and suppliers (indirect jobs).

So (I asked myself), what does each job cost Metro?  It's a simple calculation: divide Metro's loss on each venue with the number of direct and indirect jobs that the venue creates.  It turns out that each job created by the Zoo costs taxpayers $7,105, each job created by PCPA costs $5,468, and each job created by the Convention Center costs only $2,347.  The taxpayers actually make a little money on each job created by the Expo Center.

When last discussed, the public subsidy for a headquarters hotel was estimated at $160 million.  Assuming a capital cost of 5%, that equates to an expense of $8 million/year for the carrying cost of the subsidy.  If that $8 million/year will be as efficient as the current subsidy to the Convention Center and generate 1 job for every $2,347 of annual cost, then it needs to create 3,408 permanent jobs.  A 600-room full-service hotel will itself employ around 400 to 600 full- and part-time workers, leaving about 2,800 to 3,000 jobs to be created by enticing more conventions to town.

If the Convention Center creates 4,260 jobs now, then to create another 2,800 jobs (not counting the headquarters hotel) it will need to increase its visitor count by 2,800/4,260, or about 65%, if the new visitors have the same spending habits as the current visitors.  The Convention Center had 548,260 visitors in fiscal year 2010, so to attain this increase the headquarters hotel will need to attract an additional 360,000 conventioneers a year, or about 1,000 every day of the year.  That's a lot of people to squeeze into a 600-room hotel.

How to make lemonade out of the Lake Oswego Streetcar lemon

The Lake Oswego streetcar proposal was an interesting if expensive way to provide some rail service to an underdeveloped part of Portland's richest suburb.  Now that the Lake Oswego City Council has killed the $208 million (today's dollars) Portland-Lake Oswego streetcar proposal, Portland and Lake Oswego need to move promptly on what to do with the right-of-way.  Major portions of the right-of-way will revert to the adjoining landowners if railcars cease to use it.  (The last few freight customers who used the line were driven off about 20 years ago.)

The logical course is to condemn the southern portion of the route for a bicycle and pedestrian path.  Whichever agency took this project on would have to condemn the route from central Lake Oswego north past Fielding Road, then through the Elk Rock tunnel and north to where the track crosses Riverwood Road.  From that point north to Powers Marine Park the bicycle path could follow Riverwood Road and Riverside Drive (Highway 43) and the railroad could be abandoned altogether.

The bike path would then enter the park and rejoin the existing track.  The bike easement would have to be condemned from the Sellwood Bridge north to Willamette Park.  At the north end of Willamette Park it could join the existing public path along the Johns Landing waterfront, which runs north to a point near Richardson Street from which the rail right-of-way could again serve as the bike path.

This reduces the number of homeowners through whose yards the path would run from three dozen to six.  Several of those six might be willing to grant an easement for the bike path in exchange for the rails going away.

very rough calculation is that the cost to acquire the right-of-way for a bicycle path will be about $2 million.  The cost to remove the rails and pave the path should be about $2 million.  The unknown expense is the cost to light the Elk Rock Tunnel or to build a trestle around Elk Rock.  It's still a project that can be done, if it's done now, before the landowners catch on and sue to enforce their reversionary rights.

Trains are worth more than streets - just ask the City of Portland

Appraisers will tell you that valuing property is an art and not a science.  What a piece of real estate is worth depends on who is asking, and when, and on many other factors, including most notably the definition of value that the client gives the appraiser.

The city values the track and right-of-way for the proposed Lake Oswego trolley (an old Southern Pacific line that runs along the west bank of the Willamette north from Lake Oswego to a point near downtown) at $97 million, or about $16 million per mile.  Interestingly, the city values its 4,000 miles of paved streets at $5 billion, or about $1.25 million per mile.  (The unpaved streets are apparently free.)  The city thus views the railroad right-of-way as worth 13 times more than the same amount of public street.

This may explain why the city can't find the money to repave its streets -- they aren't worth the trouble.

Millard Fillmore on foreign policy

To mark the 212th anniversary of the birth of Millard Fillmore, what better than to revisit his policies?  Here is a bit from his second State of the Union address, in which President Fillmore describes his view of American foreign policy:

Our true mission is not to propagate our opinions or impose upon other countries our form of government by artifice or force, but to teach by example and show by our success, moderation, and justice the blessings of self-government and the advantages of free institutions. Let every people choose for itself and make and alter its political institutions to suit its own condition and convenience.

Our addiction to changing the forms of government of other nations hasn't, on the whole, worked out very well.  We've provided some excellent training to our military, but we haven't been exemplifying "success, moderation, and justice."

Isaac greets 2012 in rhyme

January marks the time
To greet the coming year in rhyme,
This easy task I can't abate,
For I last did it in '08.
Let's cast a final look behind
At what the old year brought to mind.
Korea lost its Kim Jong Il
Who left some awkward shoes to fill.
None know much of Kim Jong Un,
Who is for now the rising son.
We note the loyal opposition;
To defeat Obama is its mission.
Its candidates, though, don't seem to last,
Gaffes from the present and the past
Tore through the field, raising Cain
Just to knock him down again.
Paul and Bachmann had their say,
And took their chances out of play.
One candidate escaped unhit,
The one the rightists won't adMitt.
Obama still remains on track
To bring the troops home from Iraq.
His critics said he'd let them stay
Too long.  But as we near the day
For their return, the critics same
Gleefully assign him blame
For bringing them back home too soon;
Peculiar how they've changed their tune.
Close to home, a House seat came
Up for grabs.  We're going to name
Bonamici or Cornilles
To fill it.  I believe Suzanne is who
Will win the votes to follow Wu.
In Portland, one event astounds:
The Sellwood Bridge has broken ground!
Dow Walker, may he rest in peace,
Would rue that this time no one's fleeced.
From City Council two depart,
I wish you well with all my heart.
R. Leonard, thanks for stopping by
And for your thoughts concerning my
Escapist fancies on the law;
Sometime we ought to sit and jaw.
And to the people of our nation
I wish from war a long vacation,
With no military operations
And no news from K. Kardashians.